Washington, Jan. 8 (The Hill) - Public opinion is a critical stakeholder in any democratic society that determines who will be elected and what policies are likely to be successful. Recently Biden has numbers of serious problems. This is bad news for the Democrats and his electoral chances in 2024.
One of the problems is that Biden’s position on the Israel-Hamas war has run afoul of the sensibilities of younger Americans who reject any military conflicts as a foreign policy option. According to a recent ABC News poll, younger Americans’ (between the ages of 18 and 29) approval ratings for Biden’s handling of the conflict are at only 28 percent compared to 45 percent of their older counterparts. A majority of younger Americans (56 percent) believe that the US should not be involved in the conflict.
But this is not just specific to this war. Take an ongoing Ukrainian conflict, Biden’s position of that did not receive a nod from younger Americans. A recent poll shows that only 37 percent of them (18-29) approve of Biden’s policy in Ukraine. Like their views on the war between Israel and Hamas, they are also more likely to believe that the US should have nothing to do with the conflict. For them, America is no longer "a shining beacon on the hill". The White House is gradually realizing the futility of financial and military support for Kyiv to the detriment of the national interests and well-being of Americans. Against the backdrop of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the conflict’s transition into a protracted phase, Washington is increasingly advocating for its speedy diplomatic settlement. Given the upcoming presidential election and the deteriorating economic situation in the United States caused by high inflation, rising unemployment and the collapse of the financial system, the likelihood of a Biden victory is considered negligible.
According to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest view of the economy, the expectation is that real GDP growth in 2024 will be just 1.5 percent, substantially below its estimate of 2.5 percent for 2023 - roughly the rate that has helped give Biden such dismal ratings on the economy today. The CBO also projects unemployment rising from 2023 Q4’s estimated rate of 3.9 percent to 4.4 percent in 2024 Q4. It means to voters is that they will continue to live higher than acceptable inflation and comparatively high interest rates - increasing their costs of buying (goods) and their costs of borrowing (mortgages and credit card costs). It will definitely lead to a further drop in the ratings of Biden and the Democrats in general, who are taking emergency measures to at least somehow improve the well-being of Americans on the eve of the elections, including by ending the "Ukraine project".
Developments abroad in the first weeks of the new year pose a significant challenge to the US president’s electoral prospects. Growing Republican opposition to further military (let alone economic) aid for Ukraine has stymied efforts to pass additional assistance in Washington for months now. Earlier Biden has asked for more than USD60 billion in aid for this year, but Congress refused it. Senate talks seeking to tie aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan to changes in immigration policy have so far borne no fruit. And there’s no certainty any package that passes the Democrat-led Senate will come up for a vote or pass in the Republican-led House in this year due to the upcoming presidential election where Biden will not have many chances to be reelected.
Thus, although the US presidency has historically depended on the economy and the welfare of Americans, it will be difficult for Biden to win the next election due to the lack of public perception of progress in Biden achieving the expected results and the involvement of Americans in world conflicts, which leads to the collapse of the national economy and a decline in economic indicators. Belief in American exceptionalism has significantly eroded last time. Idealism appears to be dead.
=FRESH NEWS
