Today, when everyone in the information space says that the Third World War is already underway, I think it is useful to look into the mirror of history and try to see Clio’s clues there.

Let me remind you that in 1907, President of Princeton University, future US President Woodrow Wilson said: “The doors of powers that are locked now must be hacked ..... Privileges received by financiers should be protected by representatives of our state even if the sovereignty of those countries that are not inclined to meet us will be violated.”

Entering the First World War with a budget deficit of 4 billion dollars, the United States reached 11 billion surpluses in 1919 - the whole world became their debtor.

However, in the early 1920s, the US Geological Survey made a prediction that in less than ten years, American oil fields would be developed and an energy catastrophe would occur in the country. The proven oil reserves were far away in the Near and Middle East, which was the British mandate, and the British were not going to let anyone near them.

In the United States, a plan of war with the British Empire (the Red Plan) was adopted, which involved the defeat of all British ground forces in Canada and the North Atlantic. A plan to suppress the uprising in the United States was also developed. Congress allocated $ 57 million to build three secret airfields along the Canadian border.

The British defense plan No. 1 envisaged: to attack first, to conduct deep raids of mobile units in the Border States and to destroy infrastructure - to blow up bridges, railways, industrial enterprises.

The war was halted by a compromise on the Iraq Petroleum (oil fields of the former Ottoman Empire) section: the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, Shell and the French Total received 23.7% each, Standard Oil (Exxon) and “Mobil” - 11.87% each, intermediary K. Gulbenkyan - 5%.

Nevertheless, in 1939, the Red Plan was declared "completely unacceptable", but retained as a backup.

After about 20 years, global players faced a new challenge. On August 23, 1939, a non-aggression pact was concluded between Germany and the USSR, which went down in the history of diplomacy as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. At the same time, negotiations were held in Moscow between the military delegations of the USSR, Great Britain and France on mutual defense in the event of German aggression, which ended in failure. Moreover, the Polish leadership also had a hand in this result, categorically refusing to discuss the possibility of passing Soviet troops through its territory.

The Red Army Intelligence Directorate reported on the speech of the Reichskandler A. Hitler at a meeting of representatives of the military, economic and party circles of Germany on March 8, 1939: “An urgent problem for the German people is to provide themselves with sources of raw materials necessary for their well-being. In addition, in order for the German people to enjoy this wealth, their enemies must be completely exterminated: Jews, democracies, and “international powers.” As long as these enemies have at least the slightest remnants of power in any part of the world, they will pose a threat to the peaceful existence of the German people.

In this regard, the situation in Prague is becoming intolerable. In addition, Prague is needed as a means of access to raw materials. In accordance with this, orders were issued that several days later, not later than March 15, Czechoslovakia should be occupied by troops.

Then Poland will follow. We will not have to expect strong resistance here. German domination over Poland is necessary in order to supply Germany with agricultural products and coal from Poland.

As for Hungary and Romania, they certainly belong to the vital space of Germany. The fall of Poland and the corresponding pressure will undoubtedly make them pliable. Then we will fully control their vast agricultural resources and oil sources. The same can be said of Yugoslavia.

This is a plan that will be implemented until 1940. And then Germany will become invincible.

In 1940 and 1941, Germany will once and for all settle accounts with its eternal enemy - France. This country will be erased from the map of Europe. England is an old and frail country, weakened by democracy. When France is defeated, Germany will easily establish dominance over England and then will have at her disposal the wealth and possessions of England throughout the world.

Thus, for the first time uniting the continent of Europe in accordance with the new concept, Germany will undertake the greatest operation in history: using British and French possessions in America as a base, we will settle scores with the “Jewish kings of the dollar” in the United States. We will destroy this Jewish democracy, and Jewish blood will mix with dollars. Even today, Americans can insult our people, but the day will come when they, though too late, will bitterly repent of every word spoken against us.”

So, the strategic plan of Germany has been announced. From the west, it was secured by treaties; from the east, there was nothing of the kind.

The failure of negotiations in Moscow with the military delegations of England and France put an end to the hopes of the USSR to ensure its security by an agreement with Western democracies. Then the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was concluded. Churchill then called the Kremlin’s policy “coldly prudent and highly realistic.” It is unlikely that anyone today will turn his tongue to call Churchill the Stalinist song.

Contrary to current interpretations, the pact corresponded to then diplomatic practice, it was preceded by the following international treaties.

On January 26, 1934, a Polish-German declaration (Pilsudski-Hitler Pact) on the peaceful settlement of disputes and the non-use of force was signed for a period of ten years. There was a secret application to it.

According to him, Germany undertook not to oppose Poland, either independently or in alliance with other states, and Poland - to maintain strict neutrality in the event of a direct or indirect attack on Germany “even if Germany had to provoke the provocation start a war to defend your honor and security”.

Therefore, it is clear why in August 1939, Poland categorically opposed the passage of the Red Army through its territory, which was a prerequisite for the draft military treaty between the USSR, England and France. The possibility of an anti-Hitler front also failed for this reason. Recall that Hitler, announcing an attack on the USSR, motivated this by the need to protect against threats of the Red Army.

In 1935, the Anglo-German maritime agreement was concluded, which in fact legalized the rearmament of Germany in violation of the international treaties of the time.

In 1938, the Munich Agreement (Great Britain, Germany, France and Italy) was concluded for the division of Czechoslovakia. At the same time, B. Mussolini, the initiator of the agreement, was offered to nominate for the Nobel Peace Prize.

On December 6, 1938, a non-aggression pact was signed between France and Germany, known as the Bonnet-Ribbentrop Pact.

On March 22, 1939, a non-aggression pact was signed between Lithuania and Germany.

On June 7, 1939, Estonian Foreign Minister K. Selter and German Foreign Minister
I. Ribbentrop signed a non-aggression agreement, known as the Selter-Ribbentrop Pact.

On the same day, a non-aggression pact was signed between Latvia and Germany (Munter-Ribbentrop Pact).

Total - seven European states have concluded relevant agreements and treaties with Germany. These are the facts.

By the way, literally immediately after the signing of the pact in the newspaper Pravda (August 31, 1939), an article was published about the need for urgent measures to put the memorial on the Borodino field in order.

Now about the "terrible consequences", using the optics of an "alternative story."

The consequences of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact had a critical impact on the course of the Great Patriotic War, pushing the Soviet-German border 200-300 kilometers west. If he didn’t conclude, the German blitzkrieg strategy would have a great chance of success.

In this version, the Wehrmacht would not have been detained by the stubborn defense of the Red Army in the Baltic states, Western Belarus and Western Ukraine. The Germans would have quickly captured Kiev and Smolensk, ahead of the Soviet command, which would not have time to tighten reserves to Moscow. As a result, the Germans would get the opportunity to free several dozen divisions from the Eastern Front to land England and break through Egypt to the oil fields of the Middle East. Oil would be in German hands, which was Hitler’s “energy goal”. Disastrous prospects would have awaited Moscow and Leningrad; there could be no question of any defeat of the Germans near Moscow in December 1941. London would be captured by German paratroopers, and the British government would be forced to evacuate to Canada. The Soviet government would be driven back beyond the Urals.

For how many years the war would drag out in that case, God alone knows. The Germans would have time to create an atomic bomb. The next victim of Germany and its ally, Japan, would be the United States.

Now let us ask ourselves: is the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact appropriate? The answer is obvious. He saved tens, if not hundreds of millions of human lives. And add a few states.

What do we see in Clio's mirror? Yes, the story is clearly repeated in new stories. On the world chessboard all the same rivals. Moreover, those who accuse the Soviet Union of concluding a pact either do not understand anything in politics (ha ha!), or want to divert attention from modern combinations, whether it be Red or other plans.

Moscow, 2 September 2019

Stanislav Rybas, Honorable Member of Academy of Science of the Russian Federation