MEXICO CITY, July 24 (Xinhua) -- Slapping economic sanctions on Venezuela, as the United States has threatened to do, would create more problems than solving them, Mexican political observer Jose del Tronco said.
Tronco, a professor at the Latin American Social Science Institute, spoke with Xinhua about the situation in the South American country, where voters will go to the polls on Sunday to elect members of a National Constituent Assembly (ANC) tasked to rewrite the constitution.
"I believe that far from opening up the Venezuelan government, and allowing greater dialogue and greater opening towards building consensus with the opposition, it (the U.S. sanctions) would have the opposite effect and enclose the government more," said Tronco.
The U.S. government, which backs Venezuela's right-wing opposition, has demanded Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro call off the July 30 vote.
A White House statement from President Donald Trump warned last week that "if the Maduro regime imposes its Constituent Assembly on July 30, the United States will take strong and swift economic actions."
"I am not optimistic," said Tronco, "the outcome of this type of pressure, such as sanctions, at least in the short term, can further aggravate the conflict taking place today in Venezuela."
A bitter power struggle between the ruling socialist party and conservative opposition groups has fanned increasingly violent anti-government demonstrations and made governing difficult.
While the United States and Washington-influenced organizations, such as the Organization of American States (OAS), have for some time been helping the opposition's campaign to oust the socialists from power, the pressure has been recently stepped up.
"Now, the demand is through explicit and concrete threats that open up the possibility of cutting off some type of trade: the purchase of Venezuela's main export product, oil, which the United States buys and pays for in cash," said Tronco.
Plummeting oil prices helped spark the economic crisis in oil-rich Venezuela, which has long relied on oil export revenues to fuel its economy and development.
The South American country is the third-largest supplier of oil for the United States, after Canada and Saudi Arabia, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
"It remains to be seen whether the United States really goes through with its threat, but also whether Venezuela wants to move forward with convening the assembly," said Tronco, who believes Maduro will go ahead with installing the ANC.
The threat of sanctions may also have an impact beyond the borders of Venezuela, with regional countries perceiving it as "an intrusion, an interference in domestic affairs," said the academic, citing Venezuelan allies such as Ecuador, Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia.
Maduro has so far withstood the pressure and shows no signs of backing down, believing the initiative to draw up a new constitution can help break the political stalemate.
"Venezuela is severely divided, not just politically but also socially, between what the government says and what the opposition says ...," said Tronco. "It is necessary to reestablish the constitutional order."
